Expect a nuclear domino effect in Middle East if Iran obtains weapon capabilities, experts say
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The United States will have a difficult time preventing Middle Eastern countries from acquiring nuclear capabilities if Iran acquires a nuclear weapon, and work to repair relations with allies in the region to reduce concerns, experts told Gadget Clock Digital.
“It is clear that if Iran becomes a nuclear power, it will threaten the existence of all Sunni states and neighbors in the Gulf,” said Brigadier General (Reserve) Amir Avivi, founder of the Israel Defense and Security Forum. “No one will have the moral right to say no to the United States, not to Europe, not to anyone in the Middle East.”
As the United States unveils a new Joint Action Plan (JCPOA) – also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal – the biggest concern is Iran’s ability to acquire nuclear weapons. The plan limited Iran’s nuclear capability to centrifuges for 10 years and enriched uranium for 15 years.
Critics argue that the plan delays the path rather than stopping it while providing Iran with advance, permanent benefits; Proponents believe that this gap will allow the new generation to take power and make new agreements. This is a gamble that countries in the region do not support.
“There will be no stability. There will be war. There will be expansion,” added Avi. “It’s a huge existential threat.”
Israel, in its longstanding feud with its Muslim neighbors, has increasingly found itself in talks with Gulf states to strengthen ties in the face of a potential Iranian threat.
“This is a matter of great concern about the proliferation and the situation where not only Saudi Arabia, but also Egypt, Jordan and the UAE are moving towards nuclear weapons,” he said. “And I think it’s not just a threat to the Middle East, it will create a completely different planet, create a new era for the world and endanger everyone.”
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Some analysts have argued that if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia will acquire weapons from Pakistan “the next day.” Robert Ainhorn, a Brookings Fellow and former State Department official, told Gadget Clock Digital how Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Farhan al-Saud once said relations between the two countries did not require any written commitment.
However he acknowledged that their numbers were not enough to defeat Saudi Arabia. Pakistan joined Saudi Arabia’s anti-Houthi coalition in 2015 and rejected Saudi Arabia’s call for help in the Yemeni conflict, which Ainhorn sees as a sign of a strained relationship.
“If there was some understanding, you know, decades ago, at some general level, I highly doubt that the Saudis would take it to the bank,” Ainhorn said, adding that acquiring a nuclear weapon would prove “annoying” for Iran. “In the region.
Ainhorn stressed that the United States must work to address Saudi Arabia’s concerns and ensure that Riyadh does not feel the need to acquire nuclear weapons, but that this will prove difficult because regional allies are concerned that the United States is “isolating” the region.
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“It was a concern of the Obama administration, it was a hurdle with the Trump administration … and now with Biden, with the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan and the idea that the United States is withdrawing, I think it has contributed to a real concern. From Saudi Arabia and the UAE.” , About U.S. reliability, ”he argued.
Currently, he ranks Saudi Arabia and Iran as the top two countries with the potential to develop nuclear weapons, followed by South Korea and Japan, and then NATO ally Turkey.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shocked the world in 2019 when he said he considered it “unacceptable” for other countries to ban his country from acquiring nuclear weapons, with many arguing that the statement did not explicitly address Turkey’s overall position in the region and the world. No. Nuclear ambition.
EPEC Yezdani, a diplomatic journalist focusing on Turkey’s foreign policy, said that Turkey had “never had such ambitions”, but that relations with the United States would prove important if Turkey responded to any regional expansion.
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“If Saudi Arabia decides to follow Iran and build its own nuclear weapons, I don’t think Turkey will be comfortable with regional security and stability,” he explained. “It depends on Turkey’s relationship with NATO at that time.”
“If Turkey is stuck in a region that will build its own nuclear weapons, then Turkey will have a similar agenda,” Yezdani said.
A second fear of the deal is the alleged financing of Iran’s terrorist activities in the region, which critics have argued will only increase if Tehran’s 130 130.5 billion frozen assets and renewable oil production and trade make new profits.
But the United States has a role to play and must do what it can to stabilize the region, according to Ainhorn.
“The United States should remain militarily deployed in the region,” Ainhorn said. “We should try to strengthen the Abraham agreement and build an alliance of like-minded countries who are ready to resist Iran’s progress.
“I think we can contribute to stability in the region,” he added.
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